Bibliographies: '621.094 4' – Grafiati (2024)

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To determine the role of endothelin-1 (ET-1) and its receptors in the regulation of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) release, male Wistar rats were divided into six groups and subjected to the following treatments for 1 wk with or without ABT-627 (an ETA receptor antagonist, 5 mg·kg−1·day−1 in drinking water) or A-192621 (an ETB-receptor antagonist, 30 mg·kg−1·day−1 by oral gavage): control (Con), ET-1 (5 ng·kg−1·min−1 iv), Con + ABT-627, Con + A-192621, ET-1 + ABT-627, and ET-1 + A-192621. Baseline mean arterial pressure (MAP, mmHg) was higher ( P < 0.05) in Con + A-192621 (122 ± 4) and ET-1 + A-192621 (119 ± 4) groups compared with Con (104 ± 6), ET1 (106 ± 3), Con + ABT-627 (104 ± 3), and ET1 + ABT-627 (100 ± 3) groups. Intravenous administration of CGRP8–37 (a CGRP receptor antagonist, 1 mg/kg) increased MAP ( P < 0.05) in ET-1 (13 ± 1), Con + A-192621 (12 ± 1), and ET-1 + A-192621 (15 ± 3) groups compared with Con (4 ± 1), Con-ABT-627 (4 ± 1), and ET-1 + ABT-627 (5 ± 1) groups. Plasma CGRP levels (in pg/ml) were increased ( P < 0.05) in ET-1 (57.5 ± 6.1), Con + A-192621 (53.9 ± 3.4), and ET-1 + A-192621 (60.4 ± 3.0) groups compared with Con (40.4 ± 1.6), Con + ABT-627 (40.0 ± 2.9), and ET-1 + ABT-627 (42.6 ± 1.9) groups. Plasma ET-1 levels (in pg/ml) were higher ( P < 0.05) in ET-1 (2.8 ± 0.2), ET-1 + ABT-627 (3.2 ± 0.4), Con + A-192621 (3.3 ± 0.4), and ET-1 + A-192621 (4.6 ± 0.3) groups compared with Con (1.1 ± 0.2) and Con-ABT-627 (1.3 ± 0.2) groups. Therefore, our data show that ET-1 infusion leads to increased CGRP release via activation of the ETA receptor, which plays a compensatory role in preventing ET-1-induced elevation in blood pressure.

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The structures of Ni(C≡CR)(PPh3)(η-C5H5) (R = Ph (1), C6H4-4-NO2 (2), 4-C6H4C6H4-4′-NO2 (3), (E)-4-C6H4CH=CHC6H4-4′-NO2 (4), 4-C6H4C≡CC6H4-4′-NO2 (5), 4-C6H4N=CHC6H4-4′-NO2 (6)) have been determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies, refining by full-matrix least-squares analysis. For (1), crystals are triclinic, space group P-1, with a 10·094(2), b13·429(3), c 18·835(5) Å,α 103·24(2), β 91·50(2), γ 90·10(2)°, Z 4, 5844 unique reflections (595 parameters), converging at R 0·033 and Rw 0·024. For (2), crystals are orthorhombic, space group Pna21, with a 16·799(2), b 8·681(2), c 17·485(2) Å, Z 4, 1774 unique reflections (325 parameters), converging at R 0·031 and Rw 0·029. For (3), crystals are monoclinic, space group P 21/c, with a 11·140(3), b 18·282(4), c 15·296(2) Å, β 105·18(2)°, Z 4, 3132 unique reflections (397 parameters), converging at R 0·039 and Rw 0·024. For (4), crystals are monoclinic, space group P 21/n, with a 12·929(7), b 16·953(8), c 15·601(7) Å, β 112·55(3), Z 4, 3023 unique reflections (397 parameters), converging at R 0·039 and Rw 0·025. For (5), crystals are monoclinic, space group P 21/n, with a 12·710(5), b 16·882(3), c 15·693(4) Å, β 111·37(3)°, Z 4, 3216 unique reflections (397 parameters), converging at R 0·035 and Rw 0·030. For (6), crystals are monoclinic, space group P 21/n, with a 12·594(1), b 16·936(2), c 15·611(1) Å, β 112·476(5)°, Z 4, 3564 unique reflections (397 parameters), converging at R 0·038 and Rw 0·041. For structurally characterized 18-electron (cyclopentadienyl)nickel(II) acetylide complexes, statistically insignificant decreases in the average Ni-C(1) distance and trans influence and an increase in the average C(1)-C(2) parameter are observed on introduction of an acceptor substituent at the alkynyl ligand.

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Background Death associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) depends in part on the time since the myocardial infarction (MI) and modification of risk factors. Methods This observational, retrospective 4-year follow-up study consisted of 804 patients (628 men). The participants completed a questionnaire reporting diet, demographic factors, personal behavior (smoking, physical activity), anthropometry, prior medical conditions (hypertension, diabetes mellitus), and recent medication. Results During 48 months of follow-up, 12% of men and 15% of women died. Older age, longer duration of smoking, and frequency of exercise were significantly different between survivors and the deceased ( P = .014, P = .014, P = .001, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed associations with years of smoking (odds ratio, OR: 1.10, P = .025), treatment with nitrates (OR: 4.81, P = .024), and increased frequency of exercise (OR: 0.42, P = .013), adjusting for age and gender. Conclusions We should emphasize cessation of smoking and increased physical activity in MI survivors. Antismoking programs should start at an early age.

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High intensity interval training is frequently implemented using the 4 × 4 protocol where four 4-min bouts are performed at heart rate (HR) between 85 and 95% HR max. This study identified the HR and power output response to the 4 × 4 protocol in 39 active men and women (age and VO2 max = 26.0 ± 6.1 years and 37.0 ± 5.4 mL/kg/min). Initially, participants completed incremental cycling to assess VO2 max, HR max, and peak power output (PPO). They subsequently completed the 4 × 4 protocol, during which HR and power output were monitored. Data showed that 12.9 ± 0.4 min of 16 min were spent between 85 and 95% HR max, with time spent significantly lower in interval 1 (2.7 ± 0.6 min) versus intervals 2–4 (3.4 ± 0.4 min, 3.4 ± 0.3 min, and 3.5 ± 0.3 min, d = 2.4–2.7). Power output was highest in interval 1 (75% PPO) and significantly declined in intervals 2–4 (63 to 54% PPO, d = 0.7–1.0). To enhance time spent between 85 and 95% HR max for persons with higher fitness, we recommend immediate allocation of supramaximal intensities in interval one.

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The X-ray crystal structure determinations of three complexes of hexaammineruthenium(III) are reported. They are: (1) NH4+ .Ru(NH3)63+ .2ZnCl42¯, a 8·566(2), c 12·829(4) Å, V 941·3(4) Å3,I 4/m, Z = 2, R1(2σ) = 0·021, wR2 = 0·054; (2) Ru(NH3)63+ .ZnCl4 2¯.Cl¯.H2O, a 8·174(2), b 8·979(2), c 10·123(2) Å, α 80·20(2), β 86·41(2), γ 87·23(2)°, V 730·2(3) Å3 , P-1, Z = 2, R1(2σ) = 0·027, wR2 = 0·074; (3) Ru(NH3)63+ .HgCl42¯.HgCl3¯.HgCl2.H2O, a 8·055(3), b 21·493(11), c 12·625(4) Å, β 90·52(3)°, V 2186(2) Å3 , P21/c, Z = 4, R1(2σ) = 0·058, wR2 = 0·142. The hexaammineruthenium(III) cations in these structures adopt differing conformations in respect of hydrogen atom disposition. Compounds (1) and (2) have disordered NH3 groups in the Ru(NH3)63+ cations, and in compound (1) the NH4+ cation is disordered as well.

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Four copolymers (P(tCz (tris(4-carbazoyl-9-ylphenyl)amine)-co-bTP (2,2'-bithiophene)), P(tCz-co-CPDT (4H-cyclopenta[2,1-b:3,4-b’]dithiophene)), P(tCz-co-DTC (3,6-di(2-thienyl)carbazole)), and P(tCz-co-CPDTK (cyclopentadithiophene ketone))) are deposited on indium tin oxide (ITO) surfaces using electrochemical polymerization. Spectroelectrochemical properties of copolymer electrodes reveal that the colors of P(tCz-co-bTP) film are pinkish-orange, light olive green, light grayish blue, and dark blue at 0.0, 0.8, 1.2, and 1.6 V, respectively, whereas the color variations of P(tCz-co-CPDTK) film are light yellow, yellow, and blue at 0.0 V, 0.8 V, and 1.5 V, respectively. The ΔT of P(tCz-co-bTP), P(tCz-co-CPDT), P(tCz-co-DTC), and P(tCz-co-CPDTK) films are estimated to be 43.0% at 967 nm, 28.7% at 864 nm, 43.6% at 870 nm, and 24.5% at 984 nm, respectively. Five electrochromic devices (ECDs) are assembled using the tCz-based hom*opolymer and copolymers as coloring electrodes, and poly(2,2-dimethyl-3,4-propylenedioxythiophene) (PProDOT-Me2) as the complementary electrode. P(tCz-co-DTC)/PProDOT-Me2 ECD reveals high transmittance change (45.9% at 624 nm), P(tCz-co-CPDTK)/PProDOT-Me2 ECD shows high η (513.0 cm2 C−1 at 582 nm), and P(tCz-co-bTP)/PProDOT-Me2 ECD presents short switching time (less than 0.4 s) at 628 nm. Moreover, these ECDs show satisfactory redox stability and open circuit stability.

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This study was designed to quantify the long-term contribution of endogenous endothelin-1 (ET-1) and ETA receptors to the regulation of arterial pressure under normal conditions in nonhuman primates. Therefore, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate were measured 24 h/day with the use of telemetry techniques in conscious cynomolgus monkeys under control conditions, during administration of an ETA selective receptor antagonist (ABT-627; 5 mg/kg, 2 times a day by mouth, 4 days), and a 6-day posttreatment period. Systemic ETA blockade reduced MAP (24 h) from 89 ± 3 to 82 ± 2 and 79 ± 2 mmHg on days 1 and 4, respectively. Subsequently, MAP remained suppressed for 3 days posttreatment. Heart rate increased from 111 ± 5 to 122 ± 4 and 128 ± 6 beats/min on days 1and 4 of ABT-627, respectively, and remained above control for 3 days posttreatment. Plasma ET-1 concentration increased from 1.0 ± 0.3 to 1.9 ± 0.4 pg/ml in response to ABT-627 ( day 4) but decreased to control values 4 days posttreatment. These data demonstrate a physiologically important role for endogenous ET-1 and ETA receptors in the long-term regulation of arterial pressure and plasma ET-1 levels in the conscious nonhuman primate.

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The synthesis of 17α-acetoxy-3β-[(β-D-glucopyranosyl)oxy]-6α-methylpregn-4-en-20-one, the glucoside of medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA-glu), is described. MPA-glu and 14-amino-20β-hydroxy-3β-[(α-L-rhamnopyranosyl)oxy]-5β,14β-pregnane (LND 623), pregnane glycosides that bind to the digitalis receptor, and digoxin, a cardiac glycoside, were infused intravenously into the anesthetized guinea pig. Each of the three steroids significantly enhanced urinary volume and sodium excretion without affecting blood pressure and creatinine clearance. Potassium excretion was markedly enhanced by digoxin but unaffected by MPA-glu or LND 623. These observations conform to previous work that demonstrated, in the rat, potassium-sparing diuresis by the glucoside of 14β-hydroxyprogesterone, a cardiotonic pregnane. There is a dissociation between potency to inhibit [3H]ouabain binding and the extra ATPase actions of the digitaloid pregnanes.Key words: pregnanes, cardiac glycosides, diuretic, LND 623, medroxyprogesterone acetate.

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This paper analyzes how Jhumpa Lahiri’s In Other Words tends to displace Italy both linguistically and spatially, through the use of abstract descriptions of its spaces. By de-linking the experience of Italy from its spaces, Lahiri portrays a multicultural country, in which borders are shaped by linguistic, raced, gendered lines rather than by geography. Her writing is powerful as it describes and intimate and introspective experience as a racialized foreigner, however her experience of Italy is divorced from a wider social context. Because of this reason, In Other Words shares some common themes, and equally important differences, with the description of Italy – and the experiences of belonging and marginalization that are associated with this space – which can be found in the works by both nonwhite migrant writers who write in Italian and foreign travelers, who chronicle their aesthetic experience of Italy.

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The College of Santo Antão's mathematics professors knew that the heliocentric model put forward by Copernicus was not the sort of solution Clavius had in mind when he urged astronomers to work out a different planetary rearrangement. Additionally, the Catholic Church condemned the heliocentric theory of Copernicus, in 1616, a process in which the Jesuit theologian Robert Bellarmine played a crucial role. The Copernican system nevertheless remained an issue for teaching and criticism in Jesuit colleges and universities. Just like their confreres in Rome and throughout Europe, the professors of Santo Antão also delved into the Copernican theory. This chapter focuses on the Jesuit refutation of Copernicus based on astronomical, physical, and biblical arguments.

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Abstract La porta, john d., cl., saxes, comp, arr; b. Philadelphia, PA, 4/1/20; d. Sarasota, FL, 5/12/04. Began on cl. at age 9. Stud. cl. w. Wm. Dietrich, Joseph Gigliotti, Leon Russianoff 1932–57. Pl. in Youth Symph. cond. by Leopold Stokowski ’37–8. Stud. comp. w. Ernst Toch, Alexis Haieff ’45–6; improv. w. Lennie Tristano ’47–8; received B. Mus. ’56, M. Mus. Ed. ’57 fr. Manh. Sch. of Mus. Pl. w. Bob Chester, Richard Himber, Ray McKinley early ’40s; Woody Herman ’44–6; Tristano late ’40s; Charles Mingus ’50–67; Metronome All-Stars ’51–2; own gps ’51–62. Founding member and mus. dir. of Jazz Composers Wkshp. ’52–4. App. w. Gunther Schuller at Brandeis Mus. Fest. ’57; Leonard Bernstein and N.Y. Philharm. perf. Teo Macero’s Fusion ’58–9. Taught at Parkway Mus. Inst., Bklyn. ’48–51. Reed coach for Marshall Brown’s Newport Youth Band ’53–8. Active as clinician ’59–81. Taught at Manh. Sch. of Mus. ’60–2; Berklee Sch. of Mus. fr. ’62. Dir. Greater Bost. HS Stage Band ’64–5. Pl. w. Bost. Sax Qt. w. Charlie Mariano ’60s; Berklee Sax Qt. fr. ’62; Herb Pomeroy Orch fr. ’76; John La Porta–Bob Winter Duo fr. ’81. La Porta was a founding member of the Nat’l Assoc. of Jazz Educs. and the author of eight instructional texts, incl. Tonal Organization of Improv. Techniques (Kendor); Guide to Improv. (Berklee); Guide to Jazz Phrasing and Interpretation (Berklee). His numerous arrs. for hs band are publ. by Berklee, Kendor, and Marshall Brown Music. La Porta taught and lectured at Berklee and in Fla. Polls: Play. ’61; NAJE Award ’86; Berklee Award ’87. Fests: all major ’50s–’60s. Film: Trocadero w. Bob Chester Orch. perf. La Porta comp. ’42. CDs: w. C. Parker (Verve); T. Macero (Stash); C. Mingus (Deb; Sav.; Atl.); W. Herman (Col.); H. Mobley (Sav.); H. Merrill (Em.; Verve).

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In recent years, time series forecasting has attracted more attention from academia and industry. This research used raw data from the “Web Traffic Forecasting” competition on the Kaggle platform to test the prediction accuracy of different time series models, especially the generalization performance of various deep learning models. The experiments used historical traffic data from 145,063 web pages from Wikipedia from 2015-07-01 to 2017-11-13. Traffic data from 2015-07-01 to 2017-09-10 was used to forecast traffic from 2017-09-13 to 2017-11-13, a total of 62 days. The experimental results showed that almost all deep learning models predicted far more effectively than statistical and machine learning models, showing that deep learning models have great potential for time series forecasting problems.

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In the absence of large-scale pectin production in Ukraine, pectin-containing powders are an alternative source. They are used as natural additives in the manufacture of health products, due primarily to the presence of pectin, as well as other useful natural components of raw materials. The purpose of the work is to conduct research on the dispersion and fractionation of dried plant materials and to determine the energy-saving regimes of these processes. The task of the research is to develop optimal modes of dispersion of dried plant materials; determine the depend-ence of the micromill performance and power consumption on the rotation speed of the dispersant rotor; to establish the influence of the load on the sieve and the scattering time on the fractionation process. Objects, equipment and research methods. Dried pectin-containing apples and table beets were used as research objects. Studies of the dispersion process were performed on an micromill (8-MM), the coarse part was ground on a disintegrator (ДЕЗІ), the study of the dispersed composition of powders was carried out on the device 029. The paper analyzes the existing methods of grinding and equipment for its implementation. The analysis showed that percussion mills are the most suitable for grinding dried pectin-containing apples and table beets. The dispersed composition of pectin-containing powders is determined in the article. The influence of material loading on the sieve and scattering time on the yield of the fine fraction was investigated. It is proved that the scattering process is more influenced by the scattering time. The paper graphically shows the effect of rotor speed on the equivalent particle diameter and powder dispersion; differential and integral particle distribution curves depending on rotor speed and scattering time for apple and beet powders; the dependence of micromill productivity and power consumption on the speed of the disperser rotor, etc. The optimal operating speed of the rotor is 50 m/s. At this speed, energy consumption for grinding dried materials is minimal. It is proved that the fractionation process almost does not depend on the load on the sieve, but depends on the scattering time. It is impractical to increase the process duration over 3 minutes. Increasing the time to 4 minutes increases the mass of the fine fraction by only 2…5%. The yield of the fine fraction of powders according to the optimal modes of dispersion and separation is: apple – 65...68%, beet – 62...65%. The possibility of re-grinding in order to increase the fine fraction yield is shown. Conclusions. According to the results of the research, the optimal dispersion regimes, the dependence of micromill productivity and power consumption on the dispersant rotor speed, as well as the effect of load on the sieve and scattering time of apple and beet powders on the fractionation process are determined. On the basis of the conducted researches energy-saving conditions of processes of dispersion and fractionation of pectin-containing powders and proper work of the corresponding equipment are defined.

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ЦЕЛЬ: оценить различия параметров реакции кожного микрососудистого русла на нагрев в зависимо- сти от массы тела среди лиц без диабета и пациентов с сахарным диабетом 2 типа. МАТЕРИАЛЫ И МЕТОДЫ: участниками исследования стали пациенты с сахарным диабетом (СД) 2 типа и без него. Анализировали различия показателей перфузии в 4 группах пациентов: 1) без СД с избыточной массой тела (n = 33, 54±14 лет); 2) без СД с ожирением (n = 18, 54±14 лет); 3) с СД с избыточной массой тела (n = 31, 61±9 лет); 4) с СД с ожирением (n = 56, 59±9 лет). Измерение кожной микроциркуляции про- водилось методом лазерной доплеровской флоуметрии на дорсальных сторонах руки и стопы. Перфузия кожи регистрировалась первые 2 минуты в покое, далее во время нагрева до 42°С в течение 300 с. Затем рассчитывались следующие показатели: 1) Базовая перфузия – средний уровень микроциркуляции в покое за первые 2 минуты; 2) Тангенс угла наклона кривой гиперемии за 120 с от начала нагрева (Наклон-120); 3) Локальная тепловая гиперемия (ЛТГ) – средний уровень перфузии во время нагрева; 4) Абсолютный прирост перфузии – разница между ЛТГ и БП (ЛТГ-БП). Данные представлены в виде медиан и квартилей. Различия между группами оценивались с помощью критерия Краскела−Уоллиса. РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ: наклон-120 на руке в группе №1 составил 1,3 (1,1; 1,4), №2 − 0,97 (0,8; 1,1), №3 − 0,97 (0,6; 1,1), №4 – 0,9 (0,7; 1,2) [p=0,001]. При попарных сравнениях было показано, что различия между груп- пами были связаны с лучшей реактивностью микрососудов на нагрев у пациентов без СД и без ожирения, в то время как пациенты с ожирением имели сниженное значение показателя «Наклон-120», сопостави- мое с пациентами с СД (как с ожирением, так и без). Отмечено снижение ЛТГ на руке в группах №1-4: 22,7 (18,8; 25,2), 17,55 (15,8; 19,6), 16,6 (13,9; 19,4) и 15,9 (12,2; 20,4) ПЕ [p<0,001]. Сходная тенденция отмечена и в отношении параметра ЛТГ-БП [p<0,001]. В области ног различия были значимы только среди лиц с СД: при ожирении оказался ниже Наклон-120 по сравнению с избыточной массой тела: 0,4 (0,2; 0,7) против 0,7 (0,4; 0,8) [p=0,025]. ВЫВОДЫ: было продемонстрировано, что реакция сосудов на нагрев нарушается при ожирении и ещё больше уменьшается при наличии СД. Худшие значения показателей наблюдались у пациентов с СД и ожирением. При этом изменения, возникающие на фоне ожирения у лиц без СД аналогичны тем, которые мы наблюдали ранее у пациентов с СД на фоне развития диабетических микроангиопатий. Таким образом, снижение реактивности микроциркуляторного русла наблюдается не только на фоне развития микрососудистых осложнений СД, но и на фоне метаболических нарушений, таких как ожирение, даже при отсутствии нарушений углеводного обмена. Это позволяет предположить, что диагностика микро- циркуляторных нарушений в перспективе может быть использована не только с целью определения риска развития микроангиопатий, но и для оценки риска манифестации СД.

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Fibroadenomas are common benign tumors of the female breast. In the appropriate clinical treatment, they are managed without excision, rarely a carcinoma arising within a fibroadenoma. We presented the case of a ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) arising in a fibroadenoma. We present a case of a 62-year-old woman with an isolated lump, no palpable, in her right breast that underwent a core biopsy, and histological findings of the lesion revealed a DCIS within a fibroadenoma. After 4 years (in 2021) without realizing mammography, by screening, she underwent mammography and ultrasound and was characterized as ACR BI-RADS category 4. The matologist should be aware of the possibility, particularly in older women, to inform the rationale for prompt surgical evaluation and follow-up of all breast masses. Mammography revealed a 1.4 cm mass on the right upper outer without microcalcifications. An ultrasound revealed a solid mass, hypoechoic, 1.4×0.7×1.1 cm, micronucleated. A core biopsy showed a biphasic neoplasia (fibroepithelial): a diagnostic suggestive of fibroadenoma with colonization of DCIS, cribriform, high grade, measuring 2 mm. Immunohistochemistry: ER: POSITIVE: 90–100%. PR: 90–100%. CerbB-2/Her2-neu score 0: negative. Lumpectomy: all margins greater than 2.0 mm: HYALINIZED FIBROADENOMA WITH USUAL DUCTAL HYPERPLASIA (06×04 mm)

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Abstract Static test results are presented for smooth annular seals with a length-to-diameter ratio of 0.50, radius R = 51.00 mm, at the nominal radial clearance Cr = 0.2032 mm. Tests were conducted for angular shaft speeds; ω = 2, 4, 6, 8 krpm, axial pressure drops; ΔP = 2.1, 4.13, 6.21, 8.27 bars, and eccentricity ratios ϵ0 = e0/Cr = 0.00, 0.27, 0.53, 0.8 where e0 is the static eccentricity. Three pre-swirl inserts were used to target zero, medium, and high (0., 0.4, and 0.8) pre-swirl ratios for a set of pre-determined operating conditions with ISO VG 2 oil at 46.1°C. Pitot tubes measured the circumferential velocity at separate upstream and downstream seal locations and were used to calculate pre-swirl ratio, PSR = vinlet/Rω, and outlet-swirl ratio, OSR = voutlet/Rω. For all tested pre-swirl inserts, PSR tended to converge to 0.4∼0.5 as ω increased. PSR and OSR were poorly correlated. Volumetric leakage rate Q ˙ versus pressure differential ΔP was measured. The measured vector Reynolds number Re, combining the axial and circumferential Reynolds numbers ranged from ∼1000 to ∼3500. Based on Zirkelback and San Andrés 1996 publication, almost all of the flow regime is predicted to lie in the transition regime, with fewer points in the turbulent regime. Generally, the seals’ static centering properties were obtained by applying a static load Fs and measuring the resulting displacement vector e0. At many low-speed, low-ΔP test conditions, the seal would not remain in the desired centered or near-centered position and had to be forced into place with a centering force Fs. The authors believe that the observed de-centering effects resulted from test operations in the transition flow regime where the friction factor λ does not drop with increasing ΔP and increasing Re. A positive centering Lomakin effect requires that λ drop with increasing axial Reynolds number. The seals had positive centering effects over a large portion of the predicted transition flow regime, supporting the view that the shift from transition-to-turbulent flow regularly occurred at lower Re values than the Re = 3000 boundary used by Zirkleback and San Andrés.

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The pressor response of vasopressin (AVP) is mediated by a calcium-dependent mechanism (VI-receptor), whereas its antidiuretic effect depends on c-ANP (V2-receptor). DDAVP (1-desamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin) is a synthetic V2 analog of AVP. AVP and DDAVP also increase FVIII:C vWF:Ag and tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) in plasma. The mechanism by which AVP and DDAVP elevate these factors is unclear. Patients with X-linked nephrogenic diabetes insipidus (NDI) are resistant to the V2-mediated antidiuretic action of AVP and DDAVP. We therefore have studied the effect of DDAVP (0.4 ug/kg iv infusion in 10 min) in 2 brothers with NDI, their mother and an unrelated patient.In control subjects (n=12) FVIII:C rose 122 (6) % ,mean (SEM), vWF:Ag 104 (4) % and t-PA 115 (7) % over basal levels. This rise was associated with a fall in diascolic blood pressure -11 (3) mmHg and an increase in heart rate from 62 (4) to 91 (5) bpm. Plasma noradrenaline rose from 262 (34) to 590 (84) pg/ml and renin from 16 (3) to 42 (6) uU/ml. Ten out of 12 controls showed facial flusning. The patients with NDI had normal basal FVIII:C, vWF:Ag and t-PA levels. Plasma noradrenaline and renin were within the nor mam range. Tne patients with NDI were also resistant to the stimulatory effect of DDAVP on the release of FVIII:C, vWF:Ag and t-PA. They also showed no change in blood pressure, nearc rate, plasma noradrenaline and renin and had no facial flushing. The carrier had normal responses to DDAVP.Tne increase in FVII:C, vWF:Ag and t-PA and the hemodynamic responses after DDAVP infusion probably appear to depend on extrarenal V2-receptor activation. DDAVP cannot be used in identifying carriers in families at risk.

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A semi-quantitative RNP using 99Technetium macroaggregated albumin for the evaluation and follow-up of DVT and CVI has been developed. Values were assigned to the deep veins of the calf, knee, tigh and pelvis based upon the localization and the characteristics of the images obtained: stasis, hot spots and collateral circulation. A maximum score of 18 reflected complete thrombosis of all 4 segments. 208 patients (mean age 53.7 years, range 18-92), 161 of whom had a proven risk factor for DVT were studied. 99Technetium was injected into the dorsal foot vein of 407 limbs with appropriate tourniquets and early and late imaging of the limbs, pelvis and lungs was performed. In 48 patients, 83 limbs, X-ray contrast phlebography (CP) was also done. The mean RNP score was 4.1 units (range 0.4-18) and higher in the left than the right lower limb. It was mostly high in patients with proximal recurrent DVT or in DVT superimposed on CVI. The score was easy to follow and helpful in the assessment of the extent of DVT. It was particularly helpful in 3 instances. 1) Assessment of venous patency following anticoagulant therapy. 2) Estimation of recurrent DVT. 3) Differentiation of recent DVT from venous insufficiency. Overall RNP method had a sensitivity of 87.6%, a specificity of 54% and an accuracy of 64.8%. The sensitivity was similar in above & below-knee thrombi. Yet the specificity was higher in above-knee thrombi. The highest accuracy (87.3%) was observed in pelvic and groin thrombi. The distribution of thrombi on CP was 19% below the knee, 31% above it and 50% both above and below the knee. Pulmonary embolism (PE) was initially observed in 54 patients (26%) with no clinical evidence of DVT and therefore untreated. This high level is most probably related to the high incidence of proximal DVT in the patients. 181 patients were treated with heparin & coumadin and the RNP score was decreased to 3.6 units (range 0.4-8.8). PE occurred during treatment in 11 (6.1%) and recurrent DVT in 16 (8.8%) patients. CVI was observed in 23 patients before treatment and in another 24 patients (13.2%) after treatment. These results indicate that the RNP method is a simple, semi-quantitative and useful technique for the evaluation and follow-up of DVT and CVI. It is most helpful in the assessment of the extent of DVT. It is also a rapid, noninvasive and cost effective techniaue.

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Abstract: The study was carried out in the areas of studying the criteria of the social efficiency of occupational risk management by: assessing the general and occupational morbidity of workers, researching the quality of life, analyzing the social and hygienic factors of health and assessing the social protection of workers. It was found that the highest incidence rates were found in a group of workers with up to 9 years of experience, which amounted to 42.3 cases, 537.8 days of disability. When managing occupational risk in production for a five-year period, a tendency was determined to reduce the incidence of workers in sick persons by 6.1%, in cases by 4%, in days by 8.2% per 100 year-round workers. When assessing the quality of life of workers, it was found that the values of indicators on the scale "Vital activity" among employees significantly increase with increasing experience, and according to the scale "Mental health" of the psychological component of the quality of life, workers with experience of 0-9 years have significantly higher values compared to the rest of the senior groups. In the study of the criteria of social and hygienic factors of health and social protection of workers, a tendency was established to reduce the subjective assessment of their health by workers with an increase in age and work experience. So social efficiency in terms of subjective assessment of their health workers increased in all seniority and age groups. The greatest growth in the subjective assessment of their health was found among workers aged 30-39 - by 8% (0.4 points on the scale). Thus, the social effect of occupational risk management at chrysotile production is determined in a decrease in the incidence of sickness with temporary disability of employees and in an increase in the criteria for subjective assessments of their health by employees of the enterprise.

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ЦЕЛЬ: установить связь между хронотипом и изменениями компонентного состава питания у лиц с на- рушениями углеводного обмена (НУО). МАТЕРИАЛЫ И МЕТОДЫ: пациенты были распределены на 5 групп: 1 группа (n-80) – контрольная без висцерального ожирения, 2 группа (n-80) – лица с ожирением, 3 группа (n-80) – лица с предиабетом, 4 группа (n-80) – лица с сахарным диабетом 2 типа (СД2) с длительностью заболевания до 5 лет и 5 группа (n-80) – лица с СД2 с микроангиопатиями. Среднее значение окружности талии (ОТ) в группах с ожирением и НУО составило 98,6±3,4 см – висцеральное ожирение. Среди исследуемых лиц 77% женщин и 23% муж- чин, средний возраст – 58,6±3 лет. Анкетирование проводилось по опросникам: Horne-Austberga, IPAQ, оценка дневника питания (с расчетом компонентного состава за неделю) с помощью онлайн-калькулятора. РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ: по результатам теста Horne-Austberga во всех группах преобладал промежуточный хронотип и превалировал в 3 группе (89%), а наименьшее – в 4 группе (43%). Во всех группах отмечалась тенденция к позднему отходу ко сну (22:30-00:00) и увеличение продолжительности сна, среднее значение составило 9,25±35 минут. По данным опросника IPAQ доля пациентов с гиподинамией преобладала в группе с предиабетом (88%). При оценке дневника питания в обследованных группах с НУО, кроме группы кон- троля, отмечался поздний завтрак (09-10:00) и поздний ужин (20-21:00). Анализируя компонентный состав было выявлено несоответствие содержания нутриентов, а именно наибольшая доля белков в рационе со- ставила в 4 группе – 87,42±1,76 грамм, а минимальная в 1 группе – 68,91±11,22 грамм; а наибольшая доля жиров в 1 группе – 84,22±4,73 грамм, минимальная в 4 группе – 50,40±1,65 грамм; наибольшая доля угле- водов в рационе составила в 5 группе – 249,03±5,19 грамм, а минимальная в 3 группе – 214,46±1,97 грамм. Так же во 2 группе было увеличено общее количество потребляемых калорий, по сравнению с 1 группой (2536,02±268,17 ккал; 1961,74±254,12 ккал).В рационе больных 3 группы количество полиненасыщенных жирных кислот (ПНЖК) составило 1,35±0,15 грамм, по сравнению с 1 группой 3,09±0,04 грамм соответствен- но; наименьшее количество пищевых волокон выявлено в 5 группе – 5,63±0,77 грамм, что не соответствует рекомендуемым нормам потребления нутриентов для больных с висцеральным ожирением. В группах с предиабетом и СД2 с микроангиопатиями обнаружены корреляции между ИМТ и ПНЖК (r=615, p=0,001; r=-622, p=0,01), ОТ и жирами (r=-597, p=0,001; r=-673, p=0,001). ВЫВОДЫ: хронотип определяет аспекты пищевого поведения и компонентный состав питания, а имен- но промежуточный хронотип у лиц с ожирением связан с формированием пищевых «девиаций». Таким образом, нарушенный циркадианный ритм, совместно с гиподинамией и нерациональным пищевым по- ведением дает запуск модифицированному фактору риска развития процесса инсулинорезистентности, как основа ожирения и нарушений углеводного обмена.

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ЦЕЛЬ: оценить распространенность инсулинорезистентности (ИР) у лиц с фолликулярными аденомами (ФА) щитовидной железы (ЩЖ) и без тиреоидной патологии. МАТЕРИАЛЫ И МЕТОДЫ: в исследование вошли 107 женщин с ФА ЩЖ, средний возраст 53 года (42;60), группа контроля-46 женщин, средний возраст 53 года (42;57), без тиреиодной и тяжелой соматической патологии. У пациентов оценивали рост, массу тела, индекс Кетле, окружность талии (ОТ), отношение окружности талии и бедер (ОТ/ОБ), тиреотропный гормон (ТТГ), свободный тироксин (св.Т4), глюкоза и инсулин венозной плазмы методом иммунноферментного анализа (ИФА), индекс НОМА-IR по формуле: [Инсулин натощак (мкМЕ/мл)хглюкоза натощак (ммоль/л)]/22,5, УЗИ ЩЖ. Референсные значения: ИМТ 18,5-25 кг/м2 , ОТ<80 см, ОТ/ОБ<0,85, ТТГ-0,4-4,0 мкЕд/мл, св.Т4-9-22 пмоль/л, глюкозы венозной плазмы 3,5-6,1 ммоль/л, инсулина 0,7-9,0 мкМЕд/мл, индекса HOMA-IR<2,77, объем ЩЖ 9-18 см3. Полученные данные проанализированы в Statistica 6.1. Статистически значимыми считали различия при p<0,05. РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ: пациенты обеих групп имели клинически и лабораторно эутиреоз. Группы были сопоставимы по ИМТ: большинство имели избыточную массу и ожирение: в группе ФА ЩЖ-30,8% и 38,4%, в группе контроля-30,4% (р=0,97) и 41,3 % (р=0,38) соответственно. По среднему ИМТ не было различий: в группе ФА ЩЖ-28 кг/м2 (23,6;42), в группе контроля-28,45 кг/м2 (24,7; 32,9), р=0,22. Однако, в группе ФА ЩЖ преобладал висцеральный тип ожирения с высокими показателями ОТ (73,8%) и ОТ/ОТ (61,6%), в группе контроля высокие ОТ и ОТ/ОБ встречались значимо реже: 15,2% (р=0,001) и 10,9% (р=0,001) соответственно. У лиц с ФА ЩЖ высокие уровни ОТ и ОТ/ОБ встречались как при нормальной массе-33,3% и 24,2%, так при избыточной-81,8% и 60,6% и ожирении-100% и 92,6%, а в группе контроля только при избыточной массе-у 7,1% (р=0,006) и 7,1% (р=0,02) и при ожирении-у 31,5% (р=0,02) и 21% (р=0,008). Средние значения ОТ и ОТ/ОБ у лиц с ФА ЩЖ также были выше: ОТ-92 см (80;102), ОТ/ОБ-0,862 (0,796;0,9), группа контроля ОТ-77 см (74;80) (р=0,000) и ОТ/ОБ-0,762 (0,731;0,809) (р=0,000). Средние уровни гликемии были в норме: у лиц с ФА ЩЖ-5,0 ммоль/л (4,5;5,4), в группе контроля-4,8 ммоль/л (4,3;5,1), (р=0,025). Но в группе ФА ЩЖ преобладала гиперинсулинемия: средний уровень инсулина-13,8 мкМЕд/мл (8,25;17,6), в группе контроля-7,9 мкМЕд/мл (6,5;8,7), (р=0,000). У лиц с ФА ЩЖ гиперинсулинемия была при избыточной массе-48,5% и ожирении-70,7%, так и при нормальной массе-27,3%. Наличие ИР у лиц с ФА ЩЖ подтверждено и высоким индексом НОМА-IR: средний НОМА-IR 3,05 (1,72; 3,97), в группе контроля-1,54 (1,26; 1,86) (р=0,000). У лиц с ФА ЩЖ ИР встречалась как при нормальной массе-30,3%, так и при избыточной-51,5% (р=0,725) и ожирении-75,6% (р=0,0001). ВЫВОДЫ: 1. Показатели висцерального типа ожирения преобладали у лиц с ФА ЩЖ: более 2/3 имели высокий ОТ, более половины-высокий ОТ/ОБ. 2. У лиц с ФА ЩЖ чаще встречалась гиперинсулинемия: при нормальной массе-27,3%, избыточной-48,5%, ожирении-70,7%. 3. У лиц с ФА ЩЖ преобладала ИР: при нормальной массе-30,3%, избыточной-51,5%, ожирении-75,6%. 4. Высокая распространенность ИР при ФА ЩЖ дает основания рекомендовать проведение УЗИ ЩЖ лицам с висцеральным ожирением и ИР для выявления ФА ЩЖ, а повышенный НОМА-IR расценивать как предиктор ФА ЩЖ.

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The arduous conditions (i.e., harsh environmental conditions, high physical and mental demands) in which wildland firefighters (WFFs) have to perform their work during wildfire suppression can lead to states of both physical and mental fatigue. Although several studies have delved into the first type of fatigue, there is a paucity of research on the decrease in WFFs’ cognitive performance. A decreased cognitive performance has been observed throughout multi-day suppression tasks, which could lead to poor decision-making and have unintended consequences on deployments. To our knowledge, the acute effect of tasks performed by WFFs on cognitive fatigue has not been studied. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the effect of performing a specific circuit, which simulated the tasks performed by WFFs in their deployments, on central nervous system fatigue. Ten WFFs (34.4 ± 5.6 yr, 182.9 ± 6.1 cm and 92.8 ± 14.9 kg) participated in the study, who performed a field test composed of 4 specific tasks commonly used in their deployments. Each task was executed for 5 min interspersed by 90 s of recovery. This interval bout was repeated twice with 10 min of recovery in between. During the test heart rate (HR) and core temperature (CT) response were monitored. Both variables were used to calculate the physiological strain index (PSI). In addition, before and at the end of the field test, subjects’ critical flicker fusion (CFF) threshold was measured. The results obtained showed that the WFFs performed a high-exercise demand (mean HR, 85.3 ± 2.5% of maximal HR; CT, 38.3 ± 0.4 ºC and PSI, 6.0 ± 0.7). Despite this, CFF threshold measurements showed an increase (6.0 ± 6.0%, p < 0.05) in the sensory sensitivity threshold, suggesting an exercise induced increase in cortical arousal. Significant (p < 0.05) relationships between sensory sensitivity and time spent at high percentage of maximal HR (>90%), TC and PSI were found (r = -0.71, -0.74 and -0.69, respectively). In conclusion, the specific field test led an enhancement of sensory sensitivity and cortical arousal. However, the correlations found seem to indicate the potential negative effect of high-intensity exercise and thermal strain on central nervous system fatigue.

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The April 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that simple average growth expectations for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0.1% from 1.8% to 1.7% compared to previous month. Similarly, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have decreased by 0.1% from -0.6% to -0.7%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2016 have remained stable at 5.3% on a simple average basis, and have fallen by 0.2% on a GDP weighted average basis from 5.7% to 5.5% compared to the previous month. There were differences across countries both for growth and inflation expectations. Growth expectations increased in Guatemala and Peru by 0.1%, while they decreased in Uruguay by 0.7%, in Brazil by 0.2% and in Colombia by 0.1% - and they remained stable in Paraguay at 3.0%, in Mexico at 2. 4% and in Chile at 1.7%. Inflation expectations increased in Colombia by 0.3%, Uruguay by 0.2% and Guatemala by 0.1%, and they decreased in Brazil by 0.4% and in Chile, Mexico and Paraguay by 0.1% in all three cases, and remained constant in Peru at 3. 5%. Expected growth for the region is as low as -3.8% for Brazil and as high as 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges from 3.2% in Mexico to 10.1% in Uruguay.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circ*mstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursem*nts continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.